#Midst2014 - A Fall Of Tide On Turnout Or A Very Wave?
November 15, 2014
#Midst2014 - A Fall Of Tide On Turnout Or A Very Wave?
November 15, 2014
Well, the American people spoke loudly and clearly on November 4th with respect to those who showed up on the polls on a 36,4% national turnout. And obviously with respect to the expectation game the GOP triumphed literally up and down the ballot and big surprises on both sides of Washington in the Virginia Senate Race and the Maryland gubernatorial election emerged on election night. Complementary Republicans picked up more governor mansions due to huge upsets in Illinois and Massachusetts plus holding on in several highly contest races from Wisconsin over Kansas, Michigan to the Sunshine state.
With respect for the battle for the United States Senate the GOP picked up not only almost all of the Races to watch with Alaska [whose race is called but not all votes yet counted], Colorado [on a three point lead], Iowa [on a eight point lead], Arkansas [with a stunning 18 point vote advantage], Montana [with an expected 18 point advantage], South Dakota [on a twenty point advantage], West Virginia [28 point advantage] and even North-Carolina [two point win over Senator Hagan who led in almost all of the polls].
So the GOP candidates literally outpolled in stunning numbers especially in the Iowa Senate Race [except from the last Des Moines Register poll], the Kentucky Senate Race, the Georgia Senate Race, winning the three way Senate Race in South Dakota with more than fifty percent of all casted ballots and Pat Roberts crushed independent Greg Orman in the down the wire Kansas Senate Race with a double digit lead. And honestly in the Sunflower state I expect actually the exact opposite outcome with Orman pulling surprisingly strong ahead at election night. Moreover stunning was Tom Cotton winning the Race for the United States Senate in the natural state by exactly the same margin like Daines in Montana, whose win nobody thought was in jeopardy after Jon Walsh withdraw from the race.
On the House, Democrats pulled off three pickups in Omaha, Nebraska, in Florida's second CD and in California’s 31rd CD. In Contrast the GOP picked up at least fifteen seats which gives them at the very moment a net gain of twelve seats. One short of gaining the largest Republican majority in the House since 1928. The GOP defended all four House members in Arkansas, gained Bruce Brailey’s House Seat in the Hawkeye State, made big pickups in the Upstate of New York and came even close to unseat an institution in the House of Representatives, 14-term Rep. Louise Slaughter from NY 25rd CD around Rochester, who was the top Democratic Congresswoman to fight the attempt of a lawsuit against the President of the United States.
Furthermore the GOP picked up the open seat in Maine’s CD 02 but failed to make additional ground in Minnesota, whose competitive CDs got defended by Democrats. And in contrast the GOP defended easily the open seat in Minnesota’s CD 06 whose incumbent left to prepare for another Presidential Run in the Republican Primary 2016. This Congressional District was by the way the most expensive House Race in 2012 across the nation of America.
On the broader picture the gender gap shrunk from a 53/47 gap in 2012 to a 51/49 advantage of female voters casting their vote. Especially on Afro-Americans far more women turned out than men. The white vote gained three points from 2012 but compared to 2010 dropped among two points. The Afro-American vote dropped one point compared to the record high in 2012 but gained one point compared to the previous midterm in 2010. The Latino vote, which delivered President Obama the victory over Romney in 2012, stays now since the midterms of 2006 stable at eight percent of the electorate. And with so way down from the record high of ten percent in 2012.
Republicans made significant inroads in the Hispanic vote on men but did so already in 2010 just to collapse on the ballot boxes in 2012. And Republicans won the Asian American Vote this time. When the White Vote will collapse in the upcoming decades and the Republican outreach to the Latino vote will fall short eventually, the Asian Americans will be perhaps the last hope for Republicans to be competitive on the national level in the Presidential Races in 2024, 2028 and 2032 [though their geopolitical concentration among the Pacific Coast is at the moment not really helpful for the General election map from the point of view of the GOP).
Whereas in 2012 six percentage point more registered Democrats showed up on the ballot boxes, now the GOP draw even like in 2010 and surpassed registered Democrats even by one point.
And three races for the United States Congress 2014 are yet to come, thanks to the runoff system in the Pelican State. Just imagine the French would have implemented the same settlement strategy like England in America instead of building trade posts throughout New France. Then the French influence on the electoral culture with respect to the runoff system would have gotten constitueted from Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and along the other area of the Louisiana Purchase. A Doomsday Scenario for sets on national cable television who want to call a race first in a dramatic way on initial election night and a dream for the commercial market in these states and areas.
So with respect to the Runoff in Louisiana on two House Races and one important Race for the United States Senate, I am tremendously interested how the Hoeven-Landrieu Keystone Pipeline bill that got approved by the House of Representatives and will be voted on Tuesday in the United States Senate will affect the Louisiana Runoff Race from New Orleans to Minden.
What are central essentials from the election? First and foremost with respect to the state of the electoral map, I want to start with the Lone Star State: Senior Senator John Cornyn won barely the majority of Hispanics in contrast to Democrat Wendy Davis who won these super key demographic group in her failed bid for the Governor Mansion in Austin. This is great News for Republicans in the long run. It shows a path for the GOP to prevent Texas from becoming a purple state in the near future. But if this path will succeed is obviously far from sure. Especially if the Democratic nominee chooses the Secretary for Housing and Urban Development Julián Castro as VP Pick.
Moreover I believe regarding the last minute surge for Republicans in all of the Gubernatorial Races and Senate Races: With Ed Gillespie crushing the significant lead in the polls of an institution in Virginia politics, Senator Mark Warner entirely at election night, whose Senate Seat nobody thought would be in jeopardy one day before the election. And in the neighboring state of North Carolina, with Tillis defeating the perhaps best campaigner in the entire election cycle of 2014, United States Senator Hagan, underlines the exceptional last minute momentum for Republicans from coast to coast.
But regarding this truly unique circumstances in my mind, Steve Israel and Minority leader Rep. Nancy Pelosi did truly remarkable to prevent this kind of momentum that we saw for instance in Arkansas, where a two term United States Senator who run unopposed in 2008 got defeated by Tom Cotton by a 18 points margin that we watched alike in the Montana Senate Race uncontested from the DSCC, not replicated in more House Seats. This is attributed from my point of view to the historic and truly unilateral fundraising strength of Democratic House leader Pelosi. So Rep. Pelosi standing on as Democratic leader is truly great news for Democrats.
Finally all candidates for the 114th United States Congress gave their very best to serve the Constitutional Imperative of America to form a more perfect union. Some succeed and some didn’t succeed this time but all tried to put the American people first by contributing to serve the indispensable nation on Earth.